In this episode of Tascha Labs podcast I talk about:

  1. Macro big picture for this year
  2. Crypto market outlook
  3. Three investment perspectives

Episode Notes

1. Macro big picture for this year

00:57 – What is the macro picture right now?

The biggest change is the reopening of China. The reopening will be:

     1. An economic growth driver for China & other Asian countries that rely on China.

  • Who will benefit from this? Most likely commodity exporters & tourism-reliant countries in Asia.
  • Policies change of the government: from zero-Covid to focusing on supporting growth, consumption & investment.

     2. An inflation driver & will affect other central banks. Because:

  • Unleashed demand from China: Chinese households have built up huge savings, 2022 household savings doubled that of 2021 ⇒ Huge spending surge (similar to the US post Covid).
  • Since Oct, China’s commodity index has been going up 
  • FED will likely continue raise rate throughout 2023. Target range: 5 – 5.5%.
  • Bottom line: Inflation worldwide will not come down as fast as current market expectation. Monetary tightening will likely continue.

2. Crypto market outlook

14:30 – Is the bottom in? 

Likely yes. Why?

  • So much bad news last year.
  • Bottom in June & November, and it’s holding the level of the top of 2018.
  • Unless something extraordinary happens, there is no reason to go down further.

16:20 – Does that mean we have a bull market?

No. Then when?

  • Central banks start to pivot. 
  • Will it happen soon? No.

17:40 – Why is the crypto market pumping so much recently?

  • Crypto is not just correlated to US stocks but also other risk assets.
  • The US stock market is mediocre right now.
  • Asian stock markets are performing very well ⇒ money rotation into crypto from Asia

21:30 – Sum up

  • 2023 will be better than 2022.
  • The bottom is probably in.
  • Lots of up and down before breaking into the upside.
  • Need to pay attention to the macro environment.

3. Three investment perspectives

23:50 – Beatendown names with good traction

In different market periods, different types of investors make money. For example:

  • Turnaround from deep bear market: Stress assets perform the best.
  •  Normal uptrend: trend followers make money.
  • Supportive macro environment: Kathie Wood type of people benefit the most.

28:15 – Undervalued platforms compared to historical valuations

You can use my investment valuation model to know how much a blockchain platform is worth compared to its historical data:

29:20 new, smaller caps that have traction


  • No price baseline.
  • No down bad bagholders ⇒ less sell pressure.
  • Valuation is running on narrative & market expectations.
  • Less liquidity is needed to double the price.

Caveat is need to find the names with adequate liquidity.

35:00 – Sum up

I will look into 3 things:

  1. Beatendown names but with traction.
  2. Undervalued platforms compared to historical valuations.
  3. Newer names, smaller caps that show traction.

35:55 – Top recent gainers

Apply these 3 perspectives to the top gainers in the past 30 days in the top 300 market caps.