In this episode of Tascha Labs podcast I talk about:
- Macro big picture for this year
- Crypto market outlook
- Three investment perspectives
Episode Notes
1. Macro big picture for this year
00:57 – What is the macro picture right now?
The biggest change is the reopening of China. The reopening will be:
1. An economic growth driver for China & other Asian countries that rely on China.
- Who will benefit from this? Most likely commodity exporters & tourism-reliant countries in Asia.
- Policies change of the government: from zero-Covid to focusing on supporting growth, consumption & investment.
2. An inflation driver & will affect other central banks. Because:
- Unleashed demand from China: Chinese households have built up huge savings, 2022 household savings doubled that of 2021 ⇒ Huge spending surge (similar to the US post Covid).
- Since Oct, China’s commodity index has been going up
- FED will likely continue raise rate throughout 2023. Target range: 5 – 5.5%.
- Bottom line: Inflation worldwide will not come down as fast as current market expectation. Monetary tightening will likely continue.
2. Crypto market outlook
14:30 – Is the bottom in?
Likely yes. Why?
- So much bad news last year.
- Bottom in June & November, and it’s holding the level of the top of 2018.
- Unless something extraordinary happens, there is no reason to go down further.
16:20 – Does that mean we have a bull market?
No. Then when?
- Central banks start to pivot.
- Will it happen soon? No.
17:40 – Why is the crypto market pumping so much recently?
- Crypto is not just correlated to US stocks but also other risk assets.
- The US stock market is mediocre right now.
- Asian stock markets are performing very well ⇒ money rotation into crypto from Asia
21:30 – Sum up
- 2023 will be better than 2022.
- The bottom is probably in.
- Lots of up and down before breaking into the upside.
- Need to pay attention to the macro environment.
3. Three investment perspectives
23:50 – Beatendown names with good traction
In different market periods, different types of investors make money. For example:
- Turnaround from deep bear market: Stress assets perform the best.
- Normal uptrend: trend followers make money.
- Supportive macro environment: Kathie Wood type of people benefit the most.
28:15 – Undervalued platforms compared to historical valuations
You can use my investment valuation model to know how much a blockchain platform is worth compared to its historical data:
- Explanation of the valuation framework & some names.
- A simple web3 platform valuation tool.
29:20 – new, smaller caps that have traction
Why?
- No price baseline.
- No down bad bagholders ⇒ less sell pressure.
- Valuation is running on narrative & market expectations.
- Less liquidity is needed to double the price.
Caveat is need to find the names with adequate liquidity.
35:00 – Sum up
I will look into 3 things:
- Beatendown names but with traction.
- Undervalued platforms compared to historical valuations.
- Newer names, smaller caps that show traction.
35:55 – Top recent gainers
Apply these 3 perspectives to the top gainers in the past 30 days in the top 300 market caps.