Crypto is full of potential & full of bullsh*t. You’ll be a better investor if you see bear market as a stress test to help you separate the industry’s long term truth from short term delusions. 4 truth & 4 BS in web3 economy at current stage of adoption: Long-term truth that’ll likely stand the test of time— 1. Tokenization adds powerful fuel to any economy Super power of tokenization is obvious despite many problems…

I recently had a chat with Radix CEO Piers Ridyard on the DeFi Download podcast. It’s probably my favorite interview that I’ve done this year. We talked about how to grow & govern blockchain platforms, the income distribution revolution of web3, metaverse counterparts to nation states as alternative organizing mechanisms of social/economic activities, and so much more. This conversation will give you lots of food for thoughts on the future of our economy, and of…

Rumor has it that web3 is dead. You ask the experts—TA prophets, Fed whisperers, VC insiders. Each tells you something different. Want to know the future of web3? Here’s the story of how I learned to predict the future of anything 👇 It was many yrs ago on my grad school graduation day. I was supposed to be attending the ceremony on a ribbon-decorated, perfectly manicured lawn in Washington DC. Instead, I lied on the…

5 first-principal lessons from Terra/Luna fallout, for future stablecoin investors, builders, and regulators 👇 First I’m not gonna recount Terra/Luna de-peg saga here. If you need a rundown of what happened, check out @laurashin ’s excellent podcast episode. Let’s 1st get clear on what the stablecoin biz is abt. The nature of stablecoin business: Almost all stablecoins, regardless of design, involve you, the user, give a stablecoin issuer X amount of assets in exchange for…

Cross-chain communication protocols will be HUGE. They’re key infra in a multi-chain world & can enjoy large moats. But their tech’s complex. If you confuse marketing hype w/ reality, you may bet on wrong projects. A look at this promising sector & 2 leading protocols in it: (Pic above are 2 heroines in Jane Austen’s Sense & Sensibility. What’s the metaphor? Read to end & you’ll see.) Big picture #1: Cross-chain communication is a high…

Being cheap, fast & decentralized is NOT enough for a blockchain to win. Blockchain nations that don’t have good “industrial policy” will lose. 7 industrial policies from nation states that layer 1 chains can adopt for exponential growth 👇 What’s “industrial policy”? Anything a gov / public authority does to promote a country’s economic productions & steer them in a certain direction. Why is it needed? Laissez-faire fanboys want you to believe an economy only…

Osmosis is the most popular decentralized exchange in Cosmos. A friend asked me if it’s a good long-term investment. Here are some thoughts 👇 What it is The first cross-chain DEX (decentralized exchange) in Cosmos ecosystem w/ IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication protocol)* enabled. *Think of IBC as a common language that allows Cosmos blockchains to talk to each other securely. Problem it solves 25+ & growing layer 1 blockchains in Cosmos ecosystem (e.g. Terra, Juno, Secret),…

Crypto mkt has recovered 25% since Fed’s March FOMC meeting. Sustainable rally or dead cat bounce? 👇 First off, why did risk assets sell off this yr & then bounce after FOMC meeting? Several factors. Balance sheet expansion from central banks slowed down big time in 2021—> lower momentum of liquidity growth—> lower momentum of risk asset rally Then financial conditions started tighten as inflation & commodity prices went up & central banks around world…

What is money? Will crypto change money? Some controversial opinions: World has more types of money than any point in history— 164 government currencies plus gold, silver, CDs, repos, treasuries & numerous other quasi-money. If we count crypto tokens, types of money are literally exploding. Money is going through some serious change. B/f we talk abt where it’s headed, let’s 1st look at how it became what it is today. 3 perspectives on what money…

Is Ukraine war bullish or bearish for crypto? It’s complicated. Here are 7 potential impacts, sorted from short term to long term 👇 1. Collateral damage from liquidity squeeze Financial sanction means much of Russia’s $1.2 trillion foreign liabilities (half of it is portfolio debt/equity) needs to be written off the book of foreign creditors & investors. Same w accounts receivable from Russia. Creditors/exporters/investors linked to Russia need more liquidities from market. That combined w/…

There’s one macro variable that single-handedly accounts for over 50% of crypto price swings. What it means for the value of your token bag 👇 The variable I’m referring to is the US DOLLAR. I fitted BTC price & crypto mkt cap against a laundry basket of macro factors. The value of USD (proxied by DXY index) has most significant correlation w/ crypto. 54% of y-o-y BTC price change can be explained by DXY alone.…

Last week I spent $1000 & 15 hours trying to make a NFT as my metaverse ID card. Here’s how it went & why blockchain as a digital identity solution has a long way to go 🎬 Why do I need a metaverse ID? Cuz I’m desperate. My Twitter account has a rampant impersonation problem. I get messages from followers abt new ones every week just as I block/report old ones. Imposters sell fake investment…

Since I stared sharing my writing regularly to twitter last yr my bird account grew from nothing to over 100k followers in 6 mos. So many people told me my articles changed how they look at the world forever & I get asked a lot how I came up w/ the sh*t I write abt. Hint: Having visionary insights is not abt intelligence or experience. It’s a lifestyle that you can learn 👇 I’d be…

(This article was originally published in the Wired magazine.) When we speak of an economy, we usually refer to a country or a region where interrelated activities of production, consumption, and trade happen. When we speak of blockchains, we speak of decentralized computer networks. On the surface, these two seem unrelated. But with on-chain activities growing at warp speed, the ecosystems of layer 1 public blockchains (the foundational blockchain protocols where decentralized databases and computer…