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I’m bearish on Ethereum. But it may not be for the reason you think. Transition from single chain to layer 1-layer 2 structure has large implications for ETH token valuation. And most people aren’t yet thinking this through 👇 First off I wrote abt how to value blockchain platform tokens like nation state currencies a while ago. I recommend a read cuz it’ll help you understand what I’m gonna say next, as it’s an application…

Ethereum will be the new government bond. Staked ETH, or PoS asset of a dominant blockchain, will replace US Treasuries as the risk-free asset in any portfolio. This shall be the biggest revolution in the history of financial markets. Here’s how I think it’ll go down 👇 First, how does a “risk-free asset” come to be? There’s no guarantee in life. Everything has risk. An asteroid can hit earth tomorrow and we all die. But…

In fact, not only ethereum, other newer smart contract chains will also outgrow bitcoin in market cap overtime. This will be obvious to you if you compare the return history of stocks v.s. gold👇 The chart below compares the long-run investment returns* per annum of US stocks vs gold for the past 200 years. Note this is “real returns”, i.e. effect of inflation taken out. (* Data from Deutsche Bank, 2020) Two things stand out:…

If you are new to crypto, here is a list to help you think about if you should invest in ETH. Everyone can see the upside. But what’s the downside? Baggages! Oh they are heavy. ETH infrastructure now is not set up to scale. Upgrade to ETH2 is supposed to boost transactions per sec from 25 to 100k. This is expected to happen end 2021 to early 2022. This is no small task. If major…